The chess moves have begun, and soon the punches will fly.
But has Lester Martinez’s placement in the WBC interim super middleweight title fight March 21 versus Immanuwel Aleem effectively positioned him to fight the Saul “Canelo” Alvarez-Christian Mbilli winner next?
Alvarez, 63-3-2 (39 KOs), returning from October elbow surgery following his September defeat to the now-retired Terence Crawford, is headed to the WBC full title fight in September versus former interim champion Mbilli, 29-0-1 (24 KOs), in Saudi Arabia.
Yet as the sport witnessed when a hard-hitting apparent future champion has hovered as a potential opponent under Alvarez before (cough, cough, David Benavidez), the disinterest in fighting him and the preferred agenda of the powers that be can put the obvious next chess moves on hold.
“Boxing rarely operates with rational thought,” said analyst and former 140lbs titleholder Chris Algieri on Friday’s episode of ProBox TV’s “BoxingScene Today.”
That said, all the parties involved in the talks that led the WBC to sanction Martinez-Aleem for the interim belt expressed optimism about what the plotting can lead to.
Martinez, 19-0-1 (16 KOs), has a chance to become Guatemala’s first world champion, and he could even take an interim summer title defense just before Alvarez and Mbilli square off.
Aleem, 22-3-3 (14 KOs), gains an unexpected interim title shot, with the experience and skill to produce an upset.
Mbilli avoids a rugged return bout with Martinez after their WBC Fight of the Year, and he gains the title shot and massive payday versus Alvarez.
And Alvarez has the chance to reunite with a belt, something he wore often as a four-division champion.
“This essentially means that Lester is next in line; if Canelo beats Mbilli, Lester gets the money ticket that is Canelo,” Algieri said. “But Aleem can give anyone trouble.”
Analyst and former welterweight belt holder Paulie Malignaggi said, “Aleem is a solid opponent, a ProBox-style fighter who’s more crafty, with the explosiveness. … You’ve got a fun fight. It’s winnable for Lester, but he has to work his way through the fight.”
The Martinez-Aleem bout will be shown on ProBox TV from the Orange Show Events Center in San Bernardino, California.
As for Alvarez-Mbilli, Malignaggi anticipates problems for the aging Alvarez because of the pace of Mbilli’s attack, which contributed to the high entertainment value of the Martinez draw.
“If Canelo can’t deter the pace, I don’t think Canelo wins,” Malignaggi said.
Algieri disagreed, recounting Mbilli’s lackluster showing versus sore-armed Sergiy Derevyanchenko in 2024.
“He looked tailor-made for Canelo,” Algieri said. “Canelo can hurt Mbilli.”
The unknown is Alvarez’s slippage as he turns 36 in July.
“Will [he] get old overnight?” Algieri asked, explaining that “99.5 percent of us get old during the fight. It becomes an existential crisis. Why am I here? I could be at the [neighborhood] bar, on the beach …”
Malignaggi said he can see the decline, asking, “Who has [Canelo] beat in recent years that’s better than Mbilli?”
Of course, it all starts with Martinez, 30, needing to tend to his business versus Aleem, the No. 14-ranked WBC super middleweight.
“This is a tough out, a big maybe … it’s the last opportunity for Aleem,” Algieri said. “Lester is young and developing. He still needs these kinds of fights, the way he learned and grew from Mbilli. With potential that’s exponential, it’s good to get this kind of fight – for his technical prowess and profile – before Canelo.”
Malignaggi senses the growing buzz among fight fans to see more of Martinez, who is cornered by Crawford’s trainer, Brian McIntyre.
“Some guys make good fights all the time. … Lester has the potential to never be in a bad fight,” Malignaggi said.
Algieri added, “This is a very motivated Aleem. If Lester is not switched on, this could be a banana peel. Lester can’t forget the guys below him are hungry like he has been. Aleem can make you look bad.”
But as Malignaggi knows, the chess moves of boxing could be influenced by a showing of vulnerability.
“If [Martinez] looks bad or hittable, it might increase his chances to get Canelo or Mbilli,” Malignaggi said.
Lance Pugmire is BoxingScene’s senior U.S. writer and an assistant producer for ProBox TV. Pugmire has covered boxing since the early 2000s, first at the Los Angeles Times and then at The Athletic and USA Today. He won the Boxing Writers’ Association of America’s Nat Fleischer Award in 2022 for career excellence.
