Subriel Matias-Dalton Smith is a very good fight. It’s also a fight that’s largely about timing.
Matias is typically in very good fights, and Smith looks an opponent as unlikely to run away from Matias as he is to get run over by him.
We’ve seen Matias look spectacular, and we’ve seen him look mediocre.
We know, beyond almost all doubt, what he is. He’s a relentless fighter. He can be one-dimensional but he can punch with both hands; he’s a good body puncher; he can do 12 rounds at a high pace; he comes forward; he’s a two-fisted aggressive fighter with stamina and, unless he’s fighting Alberto Puello, he’s in exciting fights.
His reign as IBF junior-welterweight champion ended when, it what was supposed to be a homecoming fight in 2024, he looked flat in a convincing defeat by Liam Paro. He also has slow feet and he’s easy to hit – and he can be hurt when he is.
Unlike with Matias, there are a lot of question marks surrounding Smith – this is the test both he and we, as observers of his career, need. He’s very dynamic. He’s good offensively; he’s physically strong; he’s big at the weight; he can punch; he’s young, hungry and motivated.
The reason the timing of this fight is so relevant is because a fighter like Smith, at 28, ought to beat one like Matias. Put simply, he has more ways to win. If he’s the fighter those around him tell us he is then he should succeed – and therefore realise his potential, not least because Matias is 33 and fights in a way that’s better suited to a young man and in a way that discourages longevity.
But Smith’s best win is Jose Zepeda, and while he’s been waiting for his title opportunity – they contest Matias’ WBC title – his progress has slowed. Matias lost to Paro because Paro, who isn’t normally seen as the boxer and technician, was disciplined and kept Matias turning all night. It’s when Matias is settled on his feet that he poses his greatest strength. Smith, perhaps, has the skills to execute similar tactics, but does he have the mental strength, the boxing IQ, and the necessary conditioning he’ll need to resist Marias’ aggression for 12 rounds?
All of which makes it a shame that the Barclays Centre in Brooklyn, New York isn’t going to come anywhere close to selling out. Even with the Puerto Ricans that exist in New York, and the walk-up culture that enhances numbers on fight night, he remains a non-English speaking fighter fighting a lower-profile opponent from England. They’re better fighters, and theirs is a more appealing match-up, than their profiles and Saturday’s occasion suggests.
Matias favours an element of chaos. The more exciting their fight becomes, the more it will suit him, because he wants to trade and he’s happy to be hit if it means hitting his opponent. He also still has “home” advantage – the crowd will be with him.
There remain those who believe that he lost to Puello. That he is defending his title as the home fighter on his promoter’s card also means that the undefeated Smith has to make a statement – Matias’ aggression will tempt the judges to give him rounds.
It’s a very competitive fight but, all of that written, Matias’ experience means that he has to be considered the favourite – we’ve not yet seen Smith fight a disciplined fight for 12 rounds against someone as dangerous as Matias.
A victory for Smith would, in all likelihood, be better for the sport overall, but Matias’ pressure and experience of big fights means he can be expected to earn a decision. A victory for Smith is far from unthinkable, but in the event of him winning I’d also expect them to go all 12 rounds.
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There are a lot of talented fighters at 140lbs – so much so that if this wasn’t for a title, Matias and Smith would be behind the very best of those – but the most appealing of all involve a combination of Teofimo Lopez, Shakur Stevenson, Gary Antuanne Russell and Richardson Hitchins, which means that there could be significant implications for Saturday’s winner.
Lopez-Stevenson is particularly appealing. I’m among those who thinks Stevenson’s close to unbeatable – he’s capable of disarming anyone he’s likely to be matched with, but if Lopez is at his very, very best he’s the biggest threat that exists to Stevenson. It has to be the Lopez who defeated Josh Taylor who shows up on January 31, not the one who struggled against George Kambosos Jnr or Jamaine Ortiz.
Hitchins is big for the weight, has a consistent jab, and conviction in his identity. Whoever he ends up fighting will also need to be at their very best.
