Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois find themselves fighting again this weekend, just under two years after Usyk was in control for 90 per cent of the first encounter before knocking out the Englishman in the ninth.

The first bout was deemed by most to be so one-sided, in fact, it’s a wonder that Saturday’s Wembley Stadium sequel has been so well received by fans and industry insiders alike. And it’s true, Usyk vs. Dubois II is one of the best fights to make, and not just for the heavyweight division, but the entire sport. 

Number one: undisputed. 

We all want an ‘undisputed’ heavyweight champion, it seems. So much so that we all go gaga, mindlessly lapping up the same unification process again and again, seemingly unaware that it’s the unification process that continues to empower the existence of too many sanctioning bodies. We do all know it’s impossible for an undisputed champion to remain for longer than a few months because the number of titles kicking around is too much for one fighter to manage, right?

Usyk has been here before. In May 2024 he outpointed Tyson Fury to add the WBC strap to the WBA, WBO and IBF trinkets he already owned. But then the IBF ordered him to fight Dubois, barely months after he’d already beaten Dubois. So, with a Fury rematch already agreed, he gave up the title, which was awarded to Dubois, and all of the promoters and broadcasters and media who made such a song and dance about Usyk winning all four belts then performed similar routines while declaring that Dubois versus Anthony Joshua was a ‘world heavyweight title fight’ – even though Usyk, the world heavyweight champion, the man who proved himself to be the one and only world champion by beating Joshua twice, Dubois, and then Fury, was not only still active but also still the champion.

Number two: the low blow.

Much of the 10 per cent of fight one that wasn’t bossed by Usyk occurred in the fifth round when he took a hefty up-and-under, immediately ruled low by the referee, which appeared to land below the belly button. Usyk took his time to get up and regain his breath, as was his right. Opinion was divided on whether the blow was indeed low - it certainly looked low to me - or if Usyk got a favor from the referee. 

Regardless of one’s interpretation, or the camera angle chosen to fuel that opinion, the incident adds to the intrigue, for sure. And low or not, the thump illustrated the power that Dubois possesses and, who knows, should he aim an inch or so higher next time, it’s plausible that it will have a similar effect.

It’s also likely that the effect of the low blow in fight one – Usyk sitting on the canvas safe in the knowledge that the referee had deemed it a foul – is going to be tricky to replicate with a legal punch. Though it’s tempting to label Usyk as a fighter who doesn’t like taking a full-blown blast to the midsection (and, frankly, who does?), it’s only right to point out that Derek Chisora, Joshua, Dubois, and Fury – alongside Mairis Breidis, Tony Bellew, Murat Gassiev, and others, at cruiserweight – all tested the Ukrainian with powerful punches to the body and, though on occasion uncomfortable, he didn’t go down. 

Number three: improvements in Dubois.

This final factor, far more than the previous two, is what makes this rematch so fascinating. The Englishman went into the first contest four fights removed from a 10th round KO loss to Joe Joyce and though in the interim he had defeated Bogdan Dinu, Joe Cusumano, Trevor Bryan, and Kevin Lerena (a fight in which Dubois was fortunate to get out of the first round), winning a bogus WBA strap along the way, there was an obvious uncertainty to his work. Usyk sensed and exposed the doubt in Dubois who appeared to choose to stay on the canvas for the full count in the ninth.

What Dubois has achieved since is remarkable. He rebounded to stop Jarrell Miller in 10, then he powered through Filip Hrgovic in eight, and looked brand new while demolishing Joshua in five. Clearly a fighter who thrives on confidence, the exceptionally heavy-handed man enters fight two in a significantly better psychological state than he would have done last time.

In the meantime, Usyk has edged ever closer to 40 years old and engaged in two gruelling 12-rounders with Fury. Though he was the rightful winner in both, and showed no sign of slippage, it’s logical to suggest that Dubois, still only 27, is both fresher than his 38-year-old opponent and the freshest opponent Usyk has faced for some time. 

Okay, but will it really be any different this time?

Usyk, for all his mischievous confidence, will be acutely aware that he’s dealing with an improving fighter. And this version of Dubois - hungry, confident and seemingly carefree - might even be Usyk’s most dangerous opponent in the entire weight class. 

There were moments in the first contest when Dubois failed to truly believe in himself, when he was too tentative and respectful after putting himself in a position to really test the champion’s resolve. In fact, watch the first encounter again and though Usyk was certainly winning the rounds, he was working hard to do so.

Against Miller, Dubois backed himself for the first time in a tricky contest. That he stopped the American so late in the bout gave him the belief to tear through Hrgovic and, when faced with Joshua, Dubois almost got the job done as early as the first round such was the assertiveness fueling him. It stands to reason, then, that he will embark on this rematch with both urgency and composure which stands to make life difficult for the smaller, older Usyk.

But how much Usyk will have to do to drain the confidence from the young man remains to be seen. Should Usyk again control the early going, for example, and Dubois is forced to endure round after round without any significant success, will the uncertainty return? One can argue that Miller was never a leading heavyweight, that Hrgovic’s standing was inflated by hype, and Joshua, who was alarmingly careless from the get-go, played right into Dubois’ hands. Usyk is a different beast entirely. 

Even so, Dubois’ best chance of scoring the upset – and there is certainly a chance – likely hinges on his ability to utilise his physical advantages and break through early, to hurt and discombobulate Usyk, and end the bout before the veteran has found his groove. Furthermore, there is a vacant quality to Dubois these days that means he doesn’t overthink his approach. It might well work in his favor if he hurts Usyk and, rather than respectfully standing back, unpacks the kitchen sink and hurls it at the champion’s chin.

Who wins and how?

One naturally wonders if the perfect time for Usyk to retire, while at the peak of his all-conquering powers, came last year after his second victory over Fury. If he had, few could have accused him of leaving any unfinished business behind. With wins over Joshua, Dubois and Fury already recorded, he could rightfully say he’d cleared out the best fighters of his era.

But the lone asterisk on his otherwise spotless career remains that seventh round of his fight with Dubois when he hit the deck, screwed up his face, and exhibited the kind of discomfort we hadn’t seen before and we haven’t seen since. Usyk will be keen to remove any lingering doubt.

It stands to reason that this rematch will be a significantly harder fight for the champion. Dubois in full flow has been a revelation and, it must be noted, stood up to burly blows from Miller, Hrgovic and Joshua in recent bouts. Each likely possesses greater one-shot power than Usyk.

But Usyk can hurt Dubois in different places. Just because Dubois walked through those three doesn’t mean he can do the same to Usyk who, pertinently, has long had an incredible array of tools at his disposal, and an acute understanding of how to get the best from them. He was in tough spots against Joshua and Fury, the latter a technical wizard himself, yet the Ukrainian found the time, space, and composure to render any physical disadvantages redundant.

It’s easy to envision Dubois enjoying periods of success, perhaps even rocking and hurting the favorite, but if you’re going to pick the upset you are going out on a limb while doing so; you are guessing that Usyk has regressed. Because for as much as Dubois has improved, he hasn’t done so to the extent that he is a better fighter than Usyk has proven himself to be in recent fights.

Therefore, the pick is for Usyk to win again. It will likely come on the cards - that is the most logical outcome - but the feeling here is that Dubois, after exerting significant mental and physical energy trying to stamp his authority on the bout, finds himself exhausted, out of ideas, wide open, and rescued somewhere between the 10th and 12th rounds. It stands to be quite a scrap before then, though.