I opened up the Netflix app Tuesday afternoon, and I was greeted on the home screen by a promotional thumbnail for the Tyson Fury-Arslanbek Makhmudov fight.

I then clicked on my individual profile, and the first words I saw on the landing page were “Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen.”

Turns out that’s the title of a new Netflix original horror series, and not a tagline for Saturday’s live fight from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. But for a second there, I wasn’t quite sure.

Ya just never know with Fury.

There’s always a possibility something very good is going to happen – a thrilling brawl, a mesmerizing display of athletic freakishness, the most iconic recovery from a knockdown you’ve ever seen.

But there’s just as good a chance that something very bad is going to happen – a dreadful bore, an uppercut he lands on his own face, a flirtation with defeat against an opponent making his professional boxing debut.

This dichotomy has always been there with Fury. It was there when he fought his first 10-rounder at age 21, when he made his US debut at 24, when he won the lineal heavyweight title at 27, when he began his trilogy with Deontay Wilder at 30, when he capped off that trilogy at 33.

Now that Fury is 37, the dichotomy is still there, but it’s accompanied by new questions – the sort of questions you can’t help but ask of a fighter his age who is returning from a 16-month layoff that was preceded by consecutive defeats.

In short, we wonder: Is Fury still capable of making that “something very good” happen?

And we wonder that at a time when the players in the heavyweight title picture largely separate into two buckets.

There are the actual championship-level fighters. Examples include Oleksandr Usyk (the lineal king), Fabio Wardley, Agit Kabayel and Moses Itauma.

And there are the faded guys getting opportunities based on their names and their past accomplishments. The standout examples here are Wilder and Anthony Joshua. And until a few days ago, before he indicated he is retired, Derek Chisora would have qualified.

Which bucket does Fury fit into?

Is he still capable of beating any of the boxers in the first group?

Or is he just trading on his achievements from an era that has ended, another senior-circuit citizen cashing in while he still can, much like Wilder (whom he fought three times), Chisora (whom he fought three times) and Joshua (whom he has been close to fighting countless times).

This is a whole new dichotomy for a fighter who, for all his flaws and polarizing qualities, was undoubtedly an elite heavyweight for a stretch of about a dozen years, even as he spent nearly half that time claiming to be retired.

That Fury’s latest unretirement comes one week after Wilder-Chisora feels fitting on all sorts of levels. We just watched a 40-year-old and a 42-year-old fight sloppier than ever (which is saying something with these two) but also as bravely as ever as they gave fans a show that, from one moment to the next, staggered and stumbled and flipped and flopped between something very bad and something very good.

On Tuesday’s episode of “The Opening Bell” podcast, Alex Steedman captured succinctly the connection between the three heavyweights and the significance of all the rounds they shared.

“You realize that Tyson Fury tore chunks out of both of those guys. Tore chunks out of them,” Steedman said. “And the truth is, he probably took pieces of himself along with it as well.”

Whether that “probably” should be upgraded to a “definitely” or downgraded to a mere “perhaps” is what we need to find out and what will determine which bucket Fury belongs in.

Fury hasn’t taken anywhere near as many flush, damaging punches as Wilder or Chisora. He hasn’t been stopped in a fight, as Wilder has been three times and as Chisora has been four times. So maybe “The Gypsy King” still has plenty to offer.

The fact is, Fury still has lost to just one professional opponent, and that professional opponent is now considered by some to be the top heavyweight of the current century. It’s entirely possible that Fury is on his last legs, but two close decision losses to Usyk certainly don’t serve as proof of it. They merely prove there’s at least one active heavyweight who is a half-notch better than Fury.

Usyk presents a unique wild card case of his own when considering those two heavyweight buckets. Yes, he is the reigning champ and he appears to be more or less at the peak of his powers, but he also happens to be shifting, at least for one fight, into cash-in mode. On May 23, Usyk will take on Rico Verhoeven, a kickboxer who has exactly one pro boxing win to his credit, and it came against an opponent who was 0-5 with five KO losses.

Usyk is 39 years old – a tad younger than Wilder and Chisora, a tad older than Fury and Joshua. Whether he intends to give any more prime, deserving contenders a shot at the throne is unclear.

Usyk has fought only once in the past 15 months. He is making MMA movies and boxing against kickboxers.

He is in the “championship level” bucket, obviously. But as his 40th birthday approaches, he seems to be testing out how the water feels in the other bucket.

For the sake of Wardley and Kabayel, both of whom have done enough to warrant a shot, one hopes Usyk is planning to do the noble thing once he’s finished doing the novelty thing against Verhoeven.

Whatever the case, Usyk probably won’t be taking on Fury again. Been there, done that, twice.

Certainly, there’s nothing Fury can do against Makhmudov to prove he deserves another crack.

But perhaps Makhmudov can pry out of Fury some evidence of how much The Gypsy King has left and of which category of heavyweight he falls into.

To be clear, Makhmudov was handpicked by Fury’s people for this occasion.

He is not incompetent. He is big and strong and has proven a little something in wins over the likes of Dave Allen and Carlos Takam.

But he is also slow and stiff in ways that may make Fury look almost like vintage Muhammad Ali by comparison.

And if Fury struggles in any significant way against him, we will have our answer. We will know the years and wars and layoffs and the way Fury has at times treated his body have caught up with him. We will know he slots in right next to Wilder and Joshua, a remnant of the recent past hanging around because he can still make money in the present.

Unfortunately for Fury, no matter how dominant he is on Saturday in Tottenham, he won’t be able to prove he’s still elite. Not against Makhmudov. But at least if he wins in style, he will have left open the possibility that he could still be elite.

In terms of Netflix live boxing main events, to date we have gotten two real fights (Terence “Bud” Crawford vs Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III) and two unserious sideshows (Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson and Joshua vs Paul).

It’s another case of two distinct buckets. The streamer has shown interest in bouts at both ends of the spectrum.

Netflix has two remaining main events on its announced boxing schedule.

One of them has been in the news of late because of the public debate over whether it’s a sanctioned professional fight or a mere exhibition. So we know which bucket that falls into. (As if the boxers in question being a combined 96 years old didn’t already make it obvious.)

Fury-Makhmudov – the other main event on the current Netflix calendar – is, on paper, a serious fight between two professionals.

But it also may conjure seven-day-old memories of Wilder-Chisora and its “Oh dear, what the hell am I watching?” aspects.

It’s anyone’s guess which Fury we’ll see on Saturday and whether he’ll leave us with anything to look forward to.

The heavyweight division is in a moment of transition. The lights are changing, and Fury is standing in the middle of the intersection.

I don’t know if something very good is going to happen or something very bad is going to happen. All I know is something very Tyson Fury is going to happen – and that’s always been enough to get me to tune in.

Eric Raskin is a veteran boxing journalist with nearly 30 years of experience covering the sport for such outlets as BoxingScene, ESPN, Grantland, Playboy, and The Ring (where he served as managing editor for seven years). He also co-hosted The HBO Boxing Podcast, Showtime Boxing with Raskin & Mulvaney, The Interim Champion Boxing Podcast with Raskin & Mulvaney, and Ring Theory. He has won three first-place writing awards from the BWAA, for his work with The Ring, Grantland, and HBO. Outside boxing, he is the senior editor of CasinoReports and the author of 2014’s The Moneymaker Effect. He can be reached on X, BlueSky, or LinkedIn, or via email at RaskinBoxing@yahoo.com.