On Friday in Miami, former two-time world heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medallist Anthony Joshua will face Jake Paul in the most-talked-about contest of the year. How it ends has been keenly debated, but unsurprisingly the most popular predicted finish is for Joshua to win easily – and perhaps however he chooses. Team Paul has other ideas.
The bout is set over eight rounds. The fighters will wear 10-ounce gloves and Joshua was not allowed to be heavier than 245lbs at the weigh-in. Paul is bizarrely the WBA’s No. 14 ranked cruiserweight. Joshua was in the midst of a career resurgence until he was brutally stopped by Daniel Dubois more than a year ago. Paul, conversely, defeated former middleweight titleholder Julio Cesar Chavez Jnr earlier this year and then signed to fight Gervonta Davis in an event that was nixed after Davis was beset by legal woes. Needing an opponent, Paul’s team reached out to Joshua – who was looking for a pre-Christmas run-out. Now the Englishman has that, and one of the most lucrative bouts of his career, too.
Here, we assess what shot could be the one that silences the former Disney star and YouTube sensation turned-pro boxer.
Chance of winning with a jab: 10 per cent
The jab is where things could get very real for Paul. Joshua has a ramming jab that can break bones. He can deploy it to the head and body, and it is likely a focal point of his attack under his new Ukrainian training team. It has always been one of Joshua’s strongest suits, and the power of the shot and the authoritative way he delivered it against Otto Wallin very rapidly stripped the Swede’s ambition against the former 2012 Olympic gold medal winner.
Partly because of how hard Joshua throws it and partly because of the regularity with which he deploys it, it is likely to be a key shot against the shorter man. Will it finish Paul? It could, but it will likely set the table for a much more violent finale.
Chance of winning with a right hand: 50 per cent
In many ways, the right cross is a Joshua signature dish. The crashing nature of the shot that put Francis Ngannou to sleep was alarming, and if he could do it to Ngannou …
Chance of winning with a left hook: 15 per cent
Rather than the left hook being a fight-ender for AJ, he loves a left hook-straight right, and the left could be used to occupy Paul’s defense or cause a distraction as Joshua tees up the right hand.
Chance of winning with a right hook: 5 per cent
I reckon this could be the finishing shot only if Joshua is piling in, in combination. It could be the climactic blow, but it’s unlikely. You could see Paul, lost on the ropes, and Joshua swarming in and a clubbing hook being the shot that does it around the side of Paul’s guard. But it’s not the most likely scenario, and even when Joshua’s swamping an opponent with pressure, he prefers to throw the right as a straight shot rather than round the side.
Chance of winning with a with a left uppercut: 5 per cent
Although Joshua has the shot, it is not common for Joshua to use it, or to end a fight with it. Maybe that changes with the new training team. But Joshua is 35, and though he can still learn plenty – and has always had the appetite to expand his in-ring education – it is unlikely that he will start going out of his way with new material. He shouldn’t need to here, either. It should be a matter of playing the hits.
Chance of winning with a right uppercut: 15 per cent
Remember that right uppercut near the end of the Wladimir Klitschko bout that will sound through heavyweight eras among the best shots thrown in big fights? It was the variety and timing that shocked Klitschko. But against the shorter and smaller man, it could be a staple for Joshua behind a 1-2. Sure, it will leave Joshua open for a left hook, so he might only start firing it in combination as the fight wears on – if it actually does. It was also the shot that devastated domestic rival Dillian Whyte. However, it’s worth remembering that Joshua was attempting to throw this shot when Daniel Dubois ended the evening of their bout – Joshua’s most recent fight – in September more than a year ago.
*The body. There is every chance that Paul is finished to the body – a straight right hand or a left hook – but Joshua has not scored many body-shot finishes.
Tris Dixon covered his first amateur boxing fight in 1996. The former editor of Boxing News, he has written for a number of international publications and newspapers, including GQ and Men’s Health, and is a board member for the Ringside Charitable Trust and the Ring of Brotherhood. He has been a broadcaster for TNT Sports and hosts the popular “Boxing Life Stories” podcast. Dixon is a British Boxing Hall of Famer, an International Boxing Hall of Fame elector, a BWAA award winner, and is the author of five boxing books, including “Damage: The Untold Story of Brain Trauma in Boxing” (shortlisted for the William Hill Sportsbook of the Year), “Warrior: A Champion’s Search for His Identity” (shortlisted for the Sunday Times International Sportsbook of the Year) and “The Road to Nowhere: A Journey Through Boxing’s Wastelands.” You can reach him @trisdixon on X and Instagram.
