On July 19, Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois will do battle for the undisputed heavyweight championship. It would be Usyk’s second time bearing the honor and Dubois’ first. Usyk, 38, won their first bout by ninth-round stoppage but has fought 24 attritional rounds with Tyson Fury in the meantime. Dubois, on the other hand, has recovered his confidence with three sensational stoppage wins in a row and is squarely in his prime at 27 years old. Will it make a difference, or are we in for a repeat of fight one? Our team gathered to make predictions for the rematch.
Owen Lewis: When Usyk agreed to fight Dubois again in the immediate aftermath of his second win over Fury in December, I thought he was making a mistake. The Fury wins were the culmination of a remarkable run, but didn’t come easily – Fury had Usyk reeling for several consecutive rounds in their first fight and wobbled him a couple times in their rematch. Usyk had already beaten Dubois – whose power may be unrivaled in the heavyweight division. There was nothing left to prove and lots to lose.
All this is to say that I’ve been picturing Dubois standing over an unconscious Usyk in the rematch since it got made. I don’t think Dubois is the better fighter, but he does have youth, power, and momentum on his side, and the fearsome punishment Usyk has absorbed over his long career has to tell at some point. As the date has approached, I’ve reconsidered – Dubois may have grown in confidence and fortitude, but he can’t match Usyk’s skill on his best day. If it turns out Usyk hasn’t declined, picking the upset seems almost ridiculous.
Still, I’ll bet Usyk isn’t quite what he was against Fury in December, and that Dubois won’t capitulate as easily as he did last time. I see a hard fight in which Usyk has to weather seriously hairy moments – maybe a legal knockdown, or Dubois swarming him against the ropes. In those scenarios, I’ll favor the younger, more explosive fighter. Dubois by ninth-round stoppage.
Lucas Ketelle: Usyk is an all-time great. I think he is on the Mount Rushmore of heavyweight greats and could’ve competed with any cruiserweight or heavyweight. Dubois is a big puncher, maybe the biggest puncher in the heavyweight division currently, but I don’t see him winning. Usyk is special...I normally like the younger fighter in the rematch, but Usyk is one of those fighters you never pick against. He defied the odds too many times to doubt him, and his boxing ability is one of the best we have ever seen. Usyk by 10th-round knockout.
Elliot Worsell: If the first fight had never taken place, I’d be more inclined to give Dubois a shot at winning. But because I’ve seen what happens when these two shape up, and because I’ve seen no signs that Usyk is on the slide, it is very hard to argue with the evidence. I still struggle to see how one of Usyk’s easiest fights at heavyweight now becomes one of his hardest, despite Dubois’ recent form. Usyk by decision.
Tris Dixon: Further out, when the fight was first announced, I was actually leaning into a Dubois win.
But, as time has gone by, I think the box of tricks at Usyk’s disposal is too significant for Dubois to overcome. I think it’s a better, more competitive fight this time. A passing of the torch is not out of the realms of possibility but unlikely. Usyk on points for me.
Declan Warrington: As true as it is that Dubois has improved considerably since their first fight, and largely because of it, it's a falsehood that he's any more of a favourite this time around. Usyk, one of the most intelligent, adaptable and tactically astute of all fighters, has had almost nine rounds to learn how to read, time and negate him. Unless the two fights with Tyson Fury, and Usyk's 38 years, have unexpectedly caught up with him, Dubois stood more chance of victory in 2023. Dubois has improved — he hasn't reinvented himself (and reinvention didn't work in rematches for either Fury or Anthony Joshua). Usyk can be expected to turn his aggression against him and stop him again. Usyk by stoppage.
