Trying to predict which Ryan Garcia will turn up to a boxing match could be used as Exhibit A should anyone want to build a cast-iron case against the dangers of gambling.
His last two outings, against Devin Haney and Rolando Romero, went so far off script that what comes next – a shot at WBC welterweight beltholder Mario Barrios – could land almost anywhere. Garcia might chin Barrios inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, he might be convincingly outworked, and if Barrios’ own recent form is anything to go by, it could end in a draw. So, an early disclaimer: Don’t allow anything written here to persuade you to part with any cash on the outcome.
Though the BoxRec rankings should never be taken as gospel – the algorithmic system employed by the record-keeping website has flaws aplenty – it is nonetheless interesting to see that someone like Garcia sits as low as 21st at 147lbs. And when judged by his most recent form, that’s probably being generous.
Garcia, 24-2-0-1 N/C (20 KOs), hasn’t (officially) won a fight since he knocked out Oscar Duarte in eight rounds at the end of 2023. Before that came the seventh-round KO loss to Gervonta Davis. After it was the no-contest with Haney, so ruled when Garcia tested positive for the performance-enhancing Ostarine and his points win was rightly rubbed out. And following Haney, and a one-year suspension, was the most lacklustre of showings that saw Romero, a sizeable underdog, win on points.
One can make a damning argument that Garcia’s done zilch to merit a shot at Barrios. To come back from a ban and immediately be rewarded with a shot at Romero for a vacant belt was silly enough, but to return from losing to Romero and be handed another title shot is just plain ludicrous.
But Garcia is Garcia and boxing is boxing. Infamy sells here and the 27-year-old remains one of the more marketable names in the sport. A flashy slugger in highlight reels and someone who when in the mood can box straight from the textbook, the handsome Californian is still young and talented enough to write off his indifferent form as an aberration. One swing from that left hook of his can turn out the lights and his spiteful raids to the body, when calculated and patient, can disarm the most formidable of foes.
Whether Garcia has the psychological tools required to focus on the job at hand is unknown, however. His pre-fight antics prior to taking on Haney were alarming and though not quite as outwardly unhinged these days, Garcia’s propensity for petulance has become tiresome. But PEDs notwithstanding, Garcia made life more uncomfortable for the uber-talented Haney than any opponent he’s encountered before or since. The skills, speed, and power that Garcia can display, erratic as he himself can be, would still appear too much for someone like Barrios who is yet to convince at elite level. Furthermore, with his father back guiding him, there are promises of significant improvement.
But with Garcia, there’s always a flipside. Though he had Haney in all sorts of trouble, scoring three knockdowns in separate rounds, he was also ineffective for large periods. And such ineffectiveness, whether extended laziness or disinterest, will hand the advantage to the busier Barrios who, though susceptible to sharp counter punches, is at his most effective when building momentum behind his jab.
The 30-year-old rebounded from consecutive losses to Davis (TKO 11) and Keith Thurman (UD 12) in 2021-22 with three victories over Jovanie Santiago (TKO 8), Yordenis Ugas (UD 12) and Fabian Andres Maidana (UD 12). Then came the drawing habit. His wild up-and-downer with Abel Ramos in November 2024 can be forgiven but it was what followed, being held by the 46-year-old Manny Pacquiao, that hurt his reputation the most. The battle-scarred Pacquiao had been inactive for four years and found Barrios, 29-2-2 (18 KOs), the most willing of opponents to shake off the cobwebs. Logic dictates that if that Barrios turns up then Garcia, even if not at 100 per cent, should have enough to win.
But Barrios is a real fighter, one who is dedicated to his trade. His head coach, Joe Goossen, used to train Garcia – and he really understands the best and worst of Barrios’ foe. His work alongside the excellent Bob Santos, who has long been involved with Barrios, might prove crucial. And though Garcia will start as favorite, we’re still to see evidence that he’s worthy of the attention he gets. And that attention, all those headlines and soundbites, have created far more hype than any genuine proof that Garcia will one day get his act together and truly fulfil his potential.
The truth is that both have struggled to convince. Barrios sits three places below Garcia in those aforementioned BoxRec welterweight rankings at 24th. The algorithms, then, are not exactly favoring either man here. Even so, Barrios has every chance of compounding Garcia’s recent misery. Though Garcia should win, Barrios is the tentative pick to do more in at least seven of the 12 rounds to score a minor upset on the cards.
The undercard is typically solid fare for a Ring event.
Richardson Hitchins, 20-0 (8 KOs), can build on the momentum he’s enjoyed with victories over Jose Zepeda, Gustavo Lemos, Liam Paro and George Kambosos Jnr when he takes on Oscar Duarte, 30-2-1 (23 KOs), in a defense of his IBF lightweight strap. If the main event is not worth laying a cent on, those looking for value might well lump on Hitchins winning this one on points after 12.
The third 12-rounder on the bill could be a cracker. Gary Antuanne Russell, 18-1 (17 KOs), risks his WBA junior welterweight title against Japan’s Andy Hiraoka, 24-0 (19 KOs). The challenger is a live underdog who can win this if inactivity – he last fought in September 2024 – is not a factor. But the disadvantages seem to be piling up for the challenger who could only fly to America at the last minute due to visa issues.
