Sebastian Fundora-Keith Thurman is a good fight. It’s also one that’ll show us how much Thurman has left.
Fundora’s still improving. Aged 28 he’s approaching the peak of his powers, but Thurman’s again talking a good game and is a proven fighter. Brock Jarvis, his past opponent, might not have been the toughest opposition, but in Thurman’s last fight he destroyed him, which means he continues to intrigue.
The junior-middleweight division lacks the star power of other weight classes but it might be the most talent-deep division in the world – and Fundora’s one of those who can argue that he’s its best fighter.
Fundora’s a strong-and-exciting champion, and in his past fight, the rematch with Tim Tszyu, he showed that he’s continuing to improve in the way that he slid in and out of range like we previously hadn’t seen. In addition to his size and reach he’s also very good on the inside.
But he’s a little too hittable. He still gets hit with some overhand shots – like Tszyu showed – which is something Thurman will have noted. We’ve also seen him knocked down – which might be because he struggles to make 154lbs. What makes him exciting is also what makes him vulnerable.
Thurman’s been too inactive for too long for the Jarvis fight to count for too much. He was on the eve of fighting Tszyu when he suffered the sort of biceps injury an ageing fighter can suffer when they train too hard. He was a very good welterweight, but whether he’s still a very good fighter we’re waiting to find out.
The Thurman we became used to watching had good legs and good feet, good combination punching, power, and was willing to take risks. But at the age of 37, and having been so inactive and having suffered injuries, we not only can’t be sure how good he still is, but how well suited he is to fighting at 154lbs. Even though Fundora was the one who suffered the injury that forced a delay until Saturday, he’s been far more active than Thurman since Thurman lost to the still-explosive-but-declining Manny Pacquiao in 2019.
If Thurman’s still close to the fighter he was, Saturday’s fight will be fun while it lasts. We already knew that Fundora could bang and slug it out, but against Tszyu he showed his boxing acumen and he will be better served using that against Thurman. Thurman has no choice but to start fast and try and set the tone. He needs to throw big shots from early on and show no fear of Fundora – and if he starts to land it could quickly become a shootout.
Fundora’s size will force Thurman to burn a lot of energy to get in and out of range. Thurman’s rarely relied on head movement, which could also present Fundora with a way to pick him apart, because Thurman will have to move all the way in and all the way out.
The key surrounds whether he succeeds in drawing Fundora into more of a firefight than Fundora needs to risk. Even if he does, there’s far from a guarantee he wins – Fundora’s won his share of firefights. But if they do, Fundora's also the one who’d put himself more at risk. I expect him to at least attempt to resist.
If he gets drawn into a firefight I can’t see them progressing beyond the middle rounds. If Fundora’s more disciplined and it becomes more tactical, I expect him to pull away in the middle rounds. Thurman’s never been stopped, but Fundora has to be seen as the favourite – and probably to win via stoppage.
With so many of the world’s leading promoters committed to DAZN, Saturday’s bill is important for PBC and Amazon. PBC has a good stable of fighters and need to stay relevant. They’ve been criticised for not keeping their fighters as active as they should, but those very good fighters can thrive if PBC can again build some momentum.
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There’s been speculation about Xander Zayas fighting Jaron “Boots” Ennis now that Top Rank have joined Matchroom on DAZN. A fight between them would be a really good one, but I can’t see it happening. I can’t see Top Rank risking him in that type of fight yet – largely because the more polished Ennis would be seen by most as the favourite, even though Zayas is improving. With his star power and potential, Top Rank knows that they will be better served waiting.
Ennis has also been spoken about as an opponent for Josh Kelly, who was impressive in victory over Bakhram Murtazaliev. Unlike Zayas, Kelly – once seen as a potential star – is considered the “weak” champion in the division and, at the age of 32, has less time than Zayas to earn the money he needs to before he retires. Even though Ennis would again be the favourite, I can see the fight happening – the money would certainly be big enough for it to.
